亚马逊财报,亚马逊财报2021

(1)财务:收入miss，Margin beat，亚马逊季度业务数据来源：财务报告财务报告，亚马逊21Q4营收1374亿美元，同比增9.5比预期的1377亿小%miss；经营利润（Operating Income）35亿美元vs经营利润率预计为24亿美元2.5% vs 预期1.8%。总的来说，这份财务报告没有太多亮点。首先，从收入结构上看，产品收入为714亿美元vs去年同期，710亿美元基本没有增长，主要是服务(云计算)AWS，然后单独分析)AWS实际上，增长率也在预期之内。营业利润(率)高于预期，但这也与预期较低有关——21Q4营业利润35亿，去年同期为69亿。此外，尽管净利润和EPS高于预期，但这主要是投资Rivian市场不太关心一次性收入(118亿美元)，或者这不是股价上涨18%的原因。让我们往下看，关键是Prime会员费。刺激亚马逊股价大幅上涨，正是Prime会员费从119美元提高到139美元(最后一次是18年，最后一次是14年，好像是4年一次)。市场为什么这么认这个东西？从下图可以直观看出:亚马逊Prime价值分拆来源：摩根将Prime会员包含的服务分为六个部分:履约(包邮、时效性高)、流媒体、游戏、音乐、书籍，然后分别与竞争进行比较Prime几乎每一项都比竞争提供了更高的价值，而拆分价格远低于竞争对手。总的来说Prime价值/价格≈8.5x，这意味着有一个非常强大的价格期权——价格也不用担心消费者不买，因为享受服务太划算，仍在改进——亚马逊每年仓储物流基础设施，通过收购（如美高梅）扩大其他娱乐增值服务，这意味着Prime价值也在不断提高，商业模式形成了一个积极的循环。这种竞争优势很难被复制和赶上。例如，亚马逊提供的1天包括1000万 商品，2天包括约1亿 商品。1天的商品数量从18年增加了10倍——护城河的持续投资（Walmart 2日达包邮只有200万商品)。从结构上看，目前订阅会员人数约2.4其中，美国9200万-增量主要来自海外市场，量主要来自海外市场Prime渗透率约16%-28%（海外TAM约7.231亿)，美国约75%，海外会员渗透率仍有较大空间。数据显示Prime海外保持高增长率，超过当地18年。与其他订阅服务相比，亚马逊的增长势头更强-高规模、高增长，如下图所示：与奈飞20年相比2.08以14%的增速订阅用户，Prime 2亿订阅增长率高达34%(有疫情推动大波因素，排除这一因素增长率也不错，摩根预计后续增长率将接近20%)。世界主要会员制商业模式增长率比较来源:摩根总结，Prime会员模式生态质量高，增长快速稳定，提价空间仍然很大——这个期权最终会再次实现，但我们不知道什么时候会实现。但值得信赖的是，这总是高于股票拆迁的确定性。我们可以理解这个系统：1. 提供的价值远远超过价格，市场也认识到这一点，所以一直有提价期权(从过去四年一次)；2. 消费者也认这个，目前2.4会员约1亿，增长空间较大；3. 经营可持续，确定性强，可给予较高的估值溢价；4. 结合以上逻辑:涨价20美元，年收入增加50亿美元左右PS 20x不过分，这一块就是市值增长1000亿美元。(4)引导亚马逊22Q1营收1120-1170亿，同比3%-8%，vs市场预期1200亿；营业利润30-60亿，vs 市场预期63.5亿。按营收指引中值1145亿计算，与预期差5%左右，这也是股价冲高回落的主要因素。 注：本文由美股研习社团队原创，转载请注明出处，谢谢！主页设置报告/反馈©Baidu使用百度前必读意见反馈京ICP京公网030173号安装10000002000001号* 后端数据jsonData */window.jsonData = 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